Introduction
War is a physical and non-physical action (in a narrow sense, it is a condition of hostility by using violence) between two or more groups of people to dominate the disputed territory. War is anciently interpreted as an armed conflict. In the modern era, war is more about technological and industrial superiority.
In the study of security and defense, war is an issue that cannot be separated. When talking about security, which is related to threats from within, Often, the war option is the last option in resolving conflicts such as civil wars or civil-military wars. Meanwhile, in the context of defense, which is related to external threats, it is closely related to war between countries as the ultimate diplomacy.
According to reality and historical experience, wars in various countries around the world always cause destruction in all walks of life and create misery, hatred, and hostility, making it very difficult to return to its original state. In preparing to face all possible forms of threats of war, it is felt very reasonable because it is the right of every nation to protect the sovereignty, honor and security of its nation, because the experience of war that has been experienced is a situation and condition which is an unpleasant moment for anyone.
The threat spectrum of the future consists of real and unreal threats. Real threats are those that occur frequently and can be encountered at any time. On the other hand, the threat that has not yet materialized is a form of open threat or conventional war, where the armed forces of the two countries are facing each other.
Discussion
War that is carried out by a country is caused by various reasons, including war to realize its political goals, the obligation to defend rights, economic, social, psychological, and so on. In general, humans view war as a problem that originates from a number of human traits, both individually and collectively as a nation. Human nature, which is manifested in behavior, nature of mind, and biological and sociopsychological innate tendencies, explains the existence of the human need to maintain species, expand living space to allow improvement of the environment, and ask for respect and even ask for exceptions from other parties about their presence and the truth of their views.
Various ways are used to fulfill that human desire—a desire to fulfill spiritual and material needs with all its motives. It is because of these various essential characteristics that there is always the possibility of a meeting of opposite desires between groups of people, a situation resulting in discord and conflict. In that dispute, there are parties who want to subdue the opponent, and there are parties who refuse or fend off the opponent's pressure.
It is felt very reasonable to prepare to face all possible forms of war threats because it is the right of every nation to protect its sovereignty, honor, and security because the experience of war that has been had is a situation and condition where it is an unpleasant moment for anyone with the war that has taken place. What will happen is the total destruction of all aspects of life, which will cause misery and pain and have a negative impact on the condition of the nation.
The wars carried out by countries and groups occur for various reasons, including that war is the result and purpose of politics, obligations, defending rights, economic, social, psychological, and so on. Even countries that adhere to expansive ideologies such as fascism, nazism, communism, capitalism, and others believe that war is a necessity as long as there are still groups that conflict with and hinder their interests in addition to defending their environment, so it is not surprising that they always try to maintain and improve the quality and quantity of personnel, materials, and weapons technology to be ready for war and win every battle in order to expand their influence.
The theory balance of power confronts future war forms.
A balance of power is a power balance carried out by a country in order to balance the power of other countries. or interpreted as a political system to achieve strength or power among countries around the world in order for this power to be balanced. When a country has excessive and inappropriate power, the Balance of Power theory predicts that it will take advantage of its strength. to attack a neighboring country that is weaker in military strength. Therefore, weak countries are encouraged to form a coalition in terms of increasing their country's defense.
In international politics, the concept of "balance of power" is known, or "balance of power that is influenced by realism." This concept is very popular when the world has several centers of power besides the United States. A distinction must be made between the balance of power associated with municipal government on the one hand and the international balance of power system on the other.
Theoretically, the balance of power assumes that changes in international status and power In particular, the efforts of a country that wants to control a certain area will be able to stimulate counter-balancing actions from one or more other countries. The balance of power in international relations refers to a balance between states or alliances to prevent one entity from becoming too powerful. With this balance, the country cannot impose its will or interfere with the interests of other countries. Countries can carry out a balance of power in two ways, namely by increasing the strength of their own country, such as when the country is involved in a ceasefire or cooperates with other countries (alliance). From the end of the Napoleonic Wars until World War I, the term "balance of power" was used to describe the relationship of power in the European state system. Britain served as a counterweight or balance holder in the European balance of power.
There are two circumstances in which the balance of power system can function effectively.
First, a group of countries can shape the balance of power when the alliance has melted. That way, it is relatively easy to break up or reform, depending on the pragmatic basis of each country. This is despite having to deny the factors of values, religion, history, and even the form of government. It is undeniable that a country can play a dominant role in counterbalancing, such as England in the 18th and 19th centuries.
Second, two different countries can balance each other's forces by adjusting their respective military strengths. We can observe how the United States and the Soviet Union simultaneously increased their military capabilities. to compete with each other for the strongest position in the world during the Cold War.
A definite weakness of the concept of "balance of power" is assessing the strength of a country as a measure of a process of balancing forces. Although it can be said simply, as described by Morgenthau, Morgenthau pioneered the theory of the balance of power, which holds that a country's power is measured by its geographical size and population. as well as the level of technological progress in a country or alliance of powers. As for economic capacity, Morgenthau himself still sees it as blurry because the economy is translated more into how military capability can be built up by it.
The conclusion is that a balance of power can create order due to a security dilemma that makes countries more focused on increasing their military capabilities, and in the end they do not have the opportunity to attack other countries. From that, all world peace will be created.
Based on this, when confronted with the form of future war associated with the previously described Balance of Power theory, the form of future war is the New Cold War (Trade War between the United States and China). This is based on the current global developments that are taking place between the two powers that dominate the world, namely the United States (US) and China. The United States and China will be stuck in a rivalry for decades. America could win if it can be more patient than China. The future that is now visible is the ongoing Cold War between the US and China.
The trade war between the United States and China can be said to be a new cold war that is permanent due to a number of factors that generals and strategists understand. The US-China relationship is the most important in the world, and with many second- and third-order effects, the cold war between the two became a negative geopolitical organizing principle that the market should appreciate. This is because the differences between the United States and China are stark and fundamental. The differences are barely manageable by negotiation and can never be completely smoothed out. China is committed to pushing the US navy and air force away from the West Pacific (South and East China Seas), while the American military is determined to stay. China's commitment makes perfect sense from their point of view.
A "trade war" is an economic conflict that occurs when one country imposes or increases tariffs or other trade barriers in response to trade barriers imposed by the other party. Meanwhile, an economic war is a war that uses economic means to destroy an enemy country through the destruction of its economy, carried out in various ways, such as blockades. According to international economic experts, there are four levels of conflict that can occur during the trade war process.
First, the US implemented a new import tariff policy that was quite high.
Second, countries outside the US reacted by carrying out the same policy towards importing US products into their country.
Third, the global economy is heading for a trade war in later stages.
Fourth, there was a real trade war that involved many countries and affected the global economy. The volume of world trade will slow down, and it is not expected to happen because it will affect all countries. The trade war will affect the global supply chain, so many companies will have to recalculate production lines, distribution, and costs. Under these conditions, every country, company, and consumer must be prepared for new economic conditions.
Faced with the threat of a trade war, each country needs to continue to seek new market alternatives by strengthening economic diplomacy. Economic diplomacy policies are directed at market diversification and destination countries for export commodities. For the medium-term strategy, the government must start mapping out new (non-traditional) export markets as an alternative to trade cooperation. Each country must also accelerate the negotiation of free trade agreements with various parties, especially with potential non-traditional market countries such as South Asia, Eastern Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and South America, which have not been optimally exploited. Strengthening regional comprehensive economic cooperation (RCEP) also needs to be carried out as an antidote to the adverse effects of the trade war.
Future Forms of Warfare Faced with a Wide Range of Threats
Along with the increasingly dynamic development of the global strategic environment, there have been strategic issues, namely energy security, terrorism, global warming, the food crisis, the global financial crisis, weapons of mass destruction, regional conflicts, and others. Added to this is the development of internet-based information and communication technology, which has accelerated the process of globalization of these strategic issues, further adding to the complexity of the threat of war in the future. A future war can be said to be a fifth-generation war (fifth-generation warfare), which is referred to as "information warfare" and is conducted through mass media and the internet (a "cyber warrior") and can cause extraordinary damage in all areas of life (ideology, politics, economy, social culture, defense, public safety, etc.). In the future, war will be controlled by non-state actors to maintain and even seize positions as "major players" in regional and global contexts. The presence of non-state actors in the context of future wars naturally creates and nurtures threats, from traditional threats to non-traditional threats, including cyberthreats and cyberwarfare, as a new type of war that has quite a worrying impact on the survival of a country.
The form of future warfare will be greatly influenced by environmental developments and strategic contexts. The complexity of the threat spectrum is classified into multidimensional patterns and types of threats, namely those originating from within the country and abroad, which can be categorized as real (actual) and not real (potential) threats. Furthermore, the form of war that is surfacing in various parts of the world today and in the future will increasingly strengthen its tendency, namely the emergence of the phenomenon of abstract war or asymmetric warfare. This war takes place without the mobilization of troops or open war, but it is sufficient to mobilize one party's capabilities and sophistication in technology, information, and communication in order to conquer the other party. In the future, wars will tend to use the advantages of technology, information, and communication. These forms of war include:
First, hybrid warfare is a military strategy that combines various aspects of warfare, starting with war actors (state actors and non-state actors), methods of warfare (conventional and non-conventional), and superior information and communication technology, including cyberspace and cyber capabilities. nuclear, radiological, biological, and chemical weapons capabilities. The use of information technology in hybrid warfare threats is basically aimed at increasing political, intelligence, military, and weapon system capabilities, management capabilities, cyber capabilities, publication capabilities, and command and control. The most dangerous scenario that can occur in a country is the emergence of a "hybrid" threat, which is the occurrence of multiple threats systematically, simultaneously, and simultaneously, all of which threaten the state's and nation's sovereignty.
Second, "network-centric warfare" (NCW). War in the future will tend to be in the form of "network-centric warfare" (NCW), namely a war of superiority in weapons, information, and communication technology in deploying forces on the battlefield. Network-centric is a command and control system for modern military operations that integrates all military components or elements into a single network based on satellite technology and a secret internet network.
The system is believed to be able to strengthen all components involved in a battle. The use of technology, information, and communication in this system allows the various components deployed in a war to be connected to each other online and in real time, so that the whereabouts of opponents and friends can be known with certainty. The development of a command and control system based on these networks is usually combined with the use of a battle management system, a system that resembles a network-centric system but has a smaller scope (usually used in the scope of inter-branch communications or within a particular branch unit). In addition, it is also equipped with remote sensing technology and systems, a map information system, precision fire technology and precision maneuvering, a communication system, and a security system. This concept is more popularly known as "Star Wars," which is the fourth dimension of war that utilizes the outer space environment. Advances in communication technology, especially satellites, have made space warfare possible. By using satellites from a certain height, one can improve and expand reconnaissance. Satellites can also provide detailed target data, provide navigation systems, especially to combat troops, and provide information about the earth's surface.
Third, war based on "robotic" and "nanotechnology" technology Technology in the world continues to develop. Robotic technology is a science in the fields of design, output, application, and other uses. Robotics is often defined as the way in which machines and robots combine and do work. In general, robotics covers various fields of technology such as mechanics, electronics, hardware systems, computer sophistication, and others. In the future, militaries around the world will tend to utilize robotic technology to create "super soldiers" or "battle robots" designed to look like humans, unmanned weapon systems, or pilotless fighter aircraft (unmanned aircraft), capable of gathering intelligence, searching, and, if necessary, eliminating the target. In fact, on several occasions, unmanned aircraft and robots are increasingly being used to replace soldiers in high-risk situations, one of which is by utilizing drone weapons that are getting smaller (nano).
This is a big concern for developing countries in the world carrying out nanotechnology innovations. The ability of this technology is not limited to shrinking the size of a molecule. Scientists and experts in sophisticated and modern weaponry use this molecule to build devices and weapon systems that have extraordinary capabilities, namely that it is very difficult to target the enemy, but in a short time it is spread in large numbers, so that enemy territory is easily destroyed with large-sized weapons. this nano.
Fourth, there is cyberwarfare (cyberwarfare). Cyberwarfare (cyberwar), which has been positioned as the fifth war dimension after land, sea, air, and outer space (space warfare), Innovations in technology have changed tactics in modern conflicts and made cyberspace the newest battlefield. Many modern devices have been made for this purpose. Assisted by advances in electromagnetic technology as well as communication and information technology, a form of electronic warfare has been created and has made governments of various countries see cyberwar as the biggest threat in the future. The main target of cyber attacks is usually the opponent's computer data and information system that manages the opponent's data and information infrastructure. The data and information infrastructure of a country's defense system is an invaluable asset and a vital object. Each party will tend to protect its data and information infrastructure assets (cyber defense). Various parties will consider that the success of a military task is largely determined by the quality and quantity of data and information required.
Closing
From the description above, it can be concluded that, on a global scale, the end of the cold war did not guarantee the realization of world security stability. The world is still colored by traditional security issues such as border disputes, arms races, or the proliferation of nuclear weapons and weapons of mass murder. The complexity of global security issues is increasing with hegemonic practices that are developed through strengthening alliances, military capabilities, technological superiority, and excellence in the economic field. It is realized that relations between countries that are built on the basis of mutual trust and respect can reduce potential conflicts. However, the wide gap in the capabilities of developed and developing countries, especially in the economic, technological, and military fields, can become an obstacle in establishing relations between nations. When confronted with the balance of power theory, the most likely form of future war is the New Cold War, or competition between the United States and China. While it is faced with a spectrum of real threats, the most likely form of future warfare is cyber warfare.
The advice to be conveyed through this article is that specific and sustainable efforts are required in anticipating and overcoming various multidimensional threats that occur, specifically with the participation of all stakeholders in an integrated manner. Besides that, it is necessary to understand the fourth generation war, the strategy, and its implementation in more depth so that it can determine anticipatory steps earlier.
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